Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3020…d641 other 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$412 (+17%) realized +$423 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%33W / 117L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days+$201
14 days+$208
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$54
other 35% +$8
world 10% +$3
sports 10% +$184
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% −$6
finance 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +101.3% +82.1% 67% 67% +68.6%
≤30d 19 +40.8% +27.4% 53% 53% +28.4%
≤90d 28 +20.0% +8.5% 46% 46% +19.6%
all 150 -33.6% -39.9% 22% 21% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 21% +3.2%
10% -45.6% 21% -6.7%
15% -50.9% 19% -15.7%
20% -55.7% 17% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$6 · ×4.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$423
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses33 / 117
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)150 / 162
History coverage469d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $16 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+110%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $141 +$101 +71%
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $366 −$6 -2%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $21 +$37 +172%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 +$23 +55%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 +$57 +510%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 +$4 +47%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races? Jun 03 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election Jun 03 $5 +$13 +244%
Will the Democratic Party win 15 upper-level local government races? Jun 03 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the Democratic Party win 13 upper-level local government races? Jun 03 $37 −$24 -64%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 02 $7 +$3 +36%
Will the Democratic Party win 16 or more upper-level local government May 31 $3 −$3 -96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $5 +$19 +376%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur place 17th for the 2025-26 English Premier Leag May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $20 +$19 +97%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $5 +$7 +143%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Apr 21 $1 +$1 +144%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Japan make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final? Mar 15 $22 +$14 +64%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 07 $11 −$6 -54%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 07 $16 −$6 -38%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $25 −$7 -28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 04 $5 +$3 +56%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $12 +$16 +130%
Kang Sun-woo in jail by March 31? Mar 03 $45 −$25 -55%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $2 +$7 +354%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $4 +$6 +156%
Will Denmark record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $1 +$4 +400%
Will Kazakhstan record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $5 +$9 +189%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time? Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 20–30 years in prison? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $242 6h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $122 10h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $240 10h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 28h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $291 28h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $41 32h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 36h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 36h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $6 36h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 36h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $274 36h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 2d
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $40 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 7d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $13 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 21d
Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 24d
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election SELL Yes 89¢ $18 24d
Will the Democratic Party win 15 upper-level local government races? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 24d
Will the Democratic Party win 15 upper-level local government races? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.55 · official $146.55 (match) · 549 history records