Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3020…df2b crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (423 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$364 (+4%) realized +$361 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate44%34W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day422.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$715now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$83
other 2% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (423 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -17.7% -25.5% 44% 30% -11.2%
≤30d 77 -17.7% -25.5% 44% 30% -11.2%
≤90d 77 -17.7% -25.5% 44% 30% -11.2%
all 77 -17.7% -25.5% 44% 30% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover422.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 30% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 22% -19.7%
15% -39.1% 14% -27.5%
20% -45.1% 9% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$25 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$715
Realized+$361
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses34 / 43
Open positions12
Markets (closed)77 / 89
History coverage2d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day422.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 64¢ 62¢ $245 $240 −$5 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Up 66¢ 58¢ $107 $94 −$13 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 75¢ 86¢ $72 $82 +$10 (+14%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 29¢ 34¢ $63 $73 +$10 (+16%)
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Up 54¢ 54¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Down 45¢ 46¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 69¢ 60¢ $32 $27 −$4 (-14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $20 $27 +$6 (+32%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Down 61¢ 52¢ $31 $27 −$4 (-14%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Down 30¢ 42¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+39%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Up 43¢ 58¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+36%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 18¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 38¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $44 +$13 +30%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $150 −$49 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $33 +$15 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$10 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $95 −$26 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $47 −$44 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$68 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$12 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $65 −$62 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $123 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$17 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $286 −$74 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$2 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $48 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $34 +$10 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $88 −$84 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $157 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $35 −$34 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$7 +18%
XRP Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $92 −$91 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $162 −$19 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $213 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $58 +$21 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $139 +$96 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $43 +$1 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? Jun 21 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 21 $7 −$2 -34%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Jun 21 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 21 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$8 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $22 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $19 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $14 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $28 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $12 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $37 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $714.56 · official $692.61 · 651 history records