Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x301f…51ce sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+18%) realized +$52 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$31
other 7% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +42.6% +29.1% 60% 60% +11.9%
≤30d 10 +42.6% +29.1% 60% 60% +11.9%
≤90d 10 +42.6% +29.1% 60% 60% +11.9%
all 10 +42.6% +29.1% 60% 60% +11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.1% 60% +11.9%
10% +16.7% 60% +1.2%
15% +5.4% 60% -8.6%
20% -4.9% 60% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 44¢ $26 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 46¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 −$3 -10%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $9 +$11 +116%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $26 −$1 -3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$10 -38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $21 +$21 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $17 +$14 +82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $21 +$11 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 +$24 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$22 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $24 11m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $8 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 5h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $25 5h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $21 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $6 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $6 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $9 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $42 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $11 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $8 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $13 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $4 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $11 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $8 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.74 · official $48.74 (match) · 36 history records