Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:53:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x301f…cba3 other 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%11W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$14
politics 20% −$6
sports 12% +$19
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 60 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 93 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.1% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses11 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage120d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $241 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $154 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $388 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $181 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $176 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $164 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $400 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $218 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $176 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $375 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $732 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $376 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $376 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $221 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $157 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $391 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $196 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $212 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 05 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $382 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $215 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $364 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $218 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $203 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $409 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Apr 02 $203 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $227 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $399 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $226 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $149 −$2 -1%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $159 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $228 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $336 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 30 $178 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $27 47h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $166 21d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $166 24d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $214 32d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $214 33d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $174 35d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $174 38d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $153 61d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $153 64d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 64d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 64d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $160 64d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $160 64d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $154 64d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $154 65d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $192 65d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $192 65d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $217 65d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $217 65d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $211 66d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $211 66d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $155 66d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $155 66d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $196 66d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $196 66d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $181 67d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $181 67d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $176 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 290 history records