Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
30 0x301f…48ab sports 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,588 (+18%) realized +$1,592 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%41W / 76L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$428
7 days+$116
14 days−$444
30 days+$681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$1,161
crypto 24% −$913
other 23% +$819
world 3% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +8.0% -2.3% 42% 35% -5.8%
≤30d 64 +10.4% -0.1% 44% 39% -0.8%
≤90d 67 +8.1% -2.2% 43% 39% +0.7%
all 117 -6.7% -15.6% 35% 32% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 32% -0.3%
10% -23.6% 32% -9.8%
15% -31.0% 32% -18.5%
20% -37.8% 32% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$50 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized+$1,592
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses41 / 76
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 121
History coverage153d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Yes 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $155 −$88 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$91 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $273 −$5 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$73 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$82 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $129 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$43 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$32 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $166 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $431 −$400 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$21 +81%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $31 +$76 +250%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$51 +101%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$15 -37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $41 +$245 +596%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $205 +$301 +147%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $149 −$146 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$74 +146%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$161 +158%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 16 $245 −$240 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$175 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $153 +$382 +250%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $242 +$264 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $254 +$289 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $31 +$39 +129%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $81 −$80 -98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $291 +$250 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $608 −$600 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $38 +$62 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 44m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY 27¢ $72 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $67 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $155 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $9 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $169 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $59 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $185 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $97 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $140 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.14 · official $416.14 · 215 history records