Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:34:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
30 0x301f…3609 world 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$212 (+4%) realized +$185 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate65%89W / 47L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,046now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$93
14 days+$37
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$33
world 39% +$190
crypto 11% −$2
other 7% +$12
finance 1% +$6
culture 1% +$37
sports 0% −$18
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +7.1% -3.1% 57% 30% -1.9%
≤30d 85 -8.4% -17.1% 61% 35% -14.9%
≤90d 135 -2.4% -11.7% 65% 44% -6.7%
all 136 -1.8% -11.2% 65% 45% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 45% -5.8%
10% -19.7% 24% -14.8%
15% -27.4% 14% -23.1%
20% -34.6% 7% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$1,046
Realized+$185
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses89 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)136 / 161
History coverage92d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $514 $512 −$2 (-0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $215 $258 +$43 (+20%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 81¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+5%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 85¢ 60¢ $66 $47 −$19 (-29%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 94¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+17%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? No 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 80¢ 77¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 15 $226 +$49 +22%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$4 +9%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 15 $106 +$19 +18%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -74%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 15 $37 +$22 +60%
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $91 −$10 -11%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $140 +$10 +7%
Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $40 −$6 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second rou Jun 09 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $13 +$5 +37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $88 +$23 +26%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $85 −$84 -99%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 03 $38 +$8 +20%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $5 $0 +9%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 03 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 01 $87 +$6 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 01 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 10-15%? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $3 +$7 +232%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $10 +$1 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $22 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 93¢ $253 1h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 93¢ $22 1h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 85¢ $275 1h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 4h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 93¢ $42 4h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 4h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 4h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 4h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $15 4h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 93¢ $45 4h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 4h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 93¢ $43 4h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 92¢ $34 4h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 93¢ $17 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $50 4h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $125 6h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 6h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 6h
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 SELL Yes 74¢ $5 6h
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? SELL No 86¢ $19 6h
Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 6h
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $9 6h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? SELL No 73¢ $1 6h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 7h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $10 7h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $10 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $70 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 14h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $140 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,046.02 · official $1,051.84 (match) · 409 history records