Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x301a…e586 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+6%) realized +$27 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate76%25W / 8L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day138.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$15
other 2% +$2
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +3.5% -6.4% 76% 61% -6.7%
≤30d 33 +3.5% -6.4% 76% 61% -6.7%
≤90d 33 +3.5% -6.4% 76% 61% -6.7%
all 33 +3.5% -6.4% 76% 61% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 61% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 39% -15.6%
15% -23.5% 30% -23.8%
20% -31.0% 15% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses25 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)33 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day138.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ 40¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+189%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 24m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 26m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 27m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 27m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 27m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 27m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 28m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 28m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.74 · official $13.74 (match) · 164 history records