Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3019…f036 crypto 513 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$543 (-11%) realized −$537 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%241W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$36
14 days−$254
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$584
world 11% −$12
other 10% −$37
tech 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -24.7% -31.9% 53% 13% -15.1%
≤30d 129 -17.6% -25.4% 44% 39% -21.0%
≤90d 507 -12.0% -20.4% 48% 43% -22.4%
all 507 -12.0% -20.4% 48% 43% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 43% -22.4%
10% -28.0% 40% -29.9%
15% -35.0% 36% -36.6%
20% -41.3% 34% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized−$537
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses241 / 266
Open positions6
Markets (closed)507 / 513
History coverage83d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 507 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $232 $228 −$4 (-2%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 14¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $26 +$4 +17%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 27 $167 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 27 $10 −$5 -50%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 27 $46 +$1 +2%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 27 $80 +$5 +6%
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $83 +$1 +1%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 27 $82 +$2 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 27 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $11 $0 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2 $0 +11%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $3 −$1 -41%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 22 $46 −$23 -51%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 22 $20 −$14 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$6 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $85 +$5 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $167 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A SELL 14¢ $5 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $132 5h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $47 5h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $84 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $83 5h
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $84 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $84 5h
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $84 5h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 1¢ $0 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 26¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $11 9h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $100 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 9h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 34¢ $22 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.99 · official $317.99 (match) · 1227 history records