Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:15:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3017…1ac7 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-13%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$47
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$46
other 27% +$2
crypto 20% −$5
world 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -40.9% -46.5% 30% 30% -46.8%
≤30d 10 -40.9% -46.5% 30% 30% -46.8%
≤90d 10 -40.9% -46.5% 30% 30% -46.8%
all 28 -21.9% -29.4% 43% 39% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 39% -25.4%
10% -36.1% 39% -32.6%
15% -42.3% 36% -39.1%
20% -48.0% 29% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage139d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $58 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$8 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 −$12 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $16 +$8 +52%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 +$7 +83%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $9 −$1 -11%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 07 $4 +$3 +76%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5 Feb 07 $59 +$55 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 03 $14 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 03 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 03 $14 −$14 -98%
Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 Feb 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 01 $2 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 01 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 01 $8 +$3 +38%
XRP Up or Down - February 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 01 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28? Feb 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 48¢ $42 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $59 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $19 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $13 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $16 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 54¢ $9 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 54¢ $8 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $9 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $19 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $9 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 132d
Stade Brestois 29 vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $114 132d
Stade Brestois 29 vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $59 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $14 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $14 135d
Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? SELL No 1¢ $0 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? BUY No 61¢ $8 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $8 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.00 · official $99.00 (match) · 53 history records