Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
30 0x3014…dcdd other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11,382 (-44%) realized −$10,893 · open −$489
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate26%7W / 20L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$917per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$4,609now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$7,421
sports 37% −$3,431
crypto 10% −$896
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -13.5% -21.8% 14% 14% -7.6%
all 27 -30.5% -37.1% 26% 19% -68.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 19% -68.5%
10% -43.1% 19% -71.5%
15% -48.6% 19% -74.3%
20% -53.7% 15% -76.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$561) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$430 vs −$713 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$4,609
Realized−$10,893
Unrealized−$489
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses7 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage622d
Avg bet$917
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $5,098 $4,609 −$489 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $280 +$1,415 +505%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $438 −$438 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $495 −$495 -100%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $289 −$289 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5) Feb 08 $6,701 −$3,657 -55%
Will TreVeyon Henderson win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 08 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Rhamondre Stevenson win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Seahawks vs. Commanders Nov 03 $561 −$561 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Nov 03 $200 −$200 -100%
Jaguars vs. Raiders Nov 02 $701 −$701 -100%
Falcons vs. Patriots Nov 02 $800 +$375 +47%
Colts vs. Steelers Nov 02 $375 +$623 +166%
Vikings vs. Lions Nov 02 $300 +$489 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8AM ET Nov 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 2? Nov 02 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Nov 02 $700 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Nov 02 $452 −$200 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Nov 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? Nov 02 $5,953 −$5,953 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Nov 02 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11PM ET Nov 02 $300 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10PM ET Nov 02 $100 +$81 +81%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Nov 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $573 −$573 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,075 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,150 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 24¢ $658 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 24¢ $63 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,894 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 24¢ $63 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 24¢ $63 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 24¢ $63 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 27¢ $1,695 68d
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $29 71d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $50 71d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $280 71d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $53 72d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $60 72d
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $79 72d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $435 72d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $385 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,608.91 · official $4,608.91 (match) · 71 history records