Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x3013…2cd8 other 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6,558 (+23%) realized +$6,558 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%71W / 138L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$39
14 days+$178
30 days−$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$6,364
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.4% -54.2% 50% 0% -19.1%
≤30d 18 -18.9% -26.6% 39% 33% -22.1%
≤90d 35 -16.4% -24.4% 37% 31% -18.4%
all 209 +10.3% -0.2% 34% 28% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 28% +13.0%
10% -9.8% 27% +2.2%
15% -18.5% 24% -7.7%
20% -26.5% 22% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$55 · ×3.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,558
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses71 / 138
Open positions0
Markets (closed)209 / 209
History coverage231d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 209 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $327 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $45 −$43 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $76 −$72 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $66 −$63 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $59 −$56 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $85 +$239 +281%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $145 +$75 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $53 +$26 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $196 −$46 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $228 +$113 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $131 +$57 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $71 −$29 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $127 −$121 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $288 −$237 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $146 −$95 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $147 −$34 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $168 −$9 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $91 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $215 −$86 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $158 +$136 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $133 +$89 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $176 −$110 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $54 +$73 +135%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $30 −$29 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $107 +$36 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $120 −$60 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $201 −$21 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $151 +$113 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $49 −$5 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $172 −$59 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 01 $160 −$124 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $417 +$903 +216%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $152 −$99 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $132 +$423 +320%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $119 +$79 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $524 +$744 +142%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $262 −$97 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $185 +$212 +115%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $91 +$298 +329%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $307 +$156 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 26 $372 +$25 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 25 $240 +$180 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $111 +$155 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $331 42m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $45 6d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 7d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $76 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $66 7d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $59 7d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 7d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $28 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $37 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1039 history records