Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3013…57ed other 379 markets active 22d ago coverage 561d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Covers last 561d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,628,037 (+2736%) realized +$3,628,037 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate25%104W / 314L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 561d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$7,218
crypto 17% −$87
sports 13% −$827
politics 12% +$483
economics 4% +$2,657
culture 1% +$188
tech 0% −$184
world 0% +$436
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -61.9% -65.5% 0% 0% -31.1%
≤30d 21 -61.9% -65.5% 0% 0% -31.1%
≤90d 23 -50.4% -55.1% 4% 4% +19.1%
all 399 -43.0% -48.4% 21% 11% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.4% 11% -12.5%
10% -53.4% 7% -20.8%
15% -57.9% 6% -28.5%
20% -62.0% 5% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -53% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$61 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

561d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,628,037
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses104 / 314
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)418 / 379
History coverage561d ⚠
Avg bet$350
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 418 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liquid win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ritchie Torres win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Desire Doue win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Natus Vincere win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will ECSTATIC win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Eugenio Suárez lead the MLB in Home Runs? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will GamerLegion win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + JA21? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will fnatic win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Legacy win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + D66? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will FlyQuest win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will AOC win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Whitney Tilson win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the October meeting? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Imperial win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will M80 win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Letitia James win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66? Jun 19 $0 $0 —%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 25 $696 −$171 -25%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad Apr 25 $296 +$490 +166%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 12 $290 +$55 +19%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Mar 12 $229 +$196 +86%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Mar 12 $446 +$54 +12%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 12 $83 +$437 +525%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Feb 24 $615 −$291 -47%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of February? Feb 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k? Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February? Feb 15 $79 −$79 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Dec 25 $832 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026? SELL No 73¢ $360 22d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? SELL No 38¢ $108 115d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? SELL No 31¢ $133 115d
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A SELL Yes 27¢ $74 115d
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A SELL Yes 30¢ $72 117d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad BUY No 34¢ $69 117d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad BUY No 38¢ $108 117d
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A SELL Yes 35¢ $177 117d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad BUY No 40¢ $119 117d
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A BUY Yes 61¢ $305 117d
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A BUY Yes 60¢ $310 117d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $83 118d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? BUY No 47¢ $235 119d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? BUY No 92¢ $461 119d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of February? BUY No 55¢ $165 122d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? BUY No 54¢ $229 122d
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k? BUY No 2¢ $10 123d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February? BUY No 29¢ $79 124d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 84¢ $290 124d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? BUY No 89¢ $446 125d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting SELL Yes 97¢ $832 176d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting BUY Yes 97¢ $832 180d
Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 180d
Will Andrew Cuomo get less than 15% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral el SELL Yes 1¢ $0 230d
Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary e SELL No 1¢ $0 230d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? SELL No 5¢ $0 230d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 72¢ $5 230d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $7 230d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $7 230d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $6 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records