Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x3013…e5b2 sports 539 markets active 1h ago coverage 421d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Covers last 420d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,516 (-1%) realized −$1,825 · open +$309
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%261W / 275L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$865est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$675now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 421d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$14,176
other 45% −$8,101
crypto 0% −$372
world 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +30.6% +18.1% 59% 59% +11.2%
≤30d 119 +27.1% +15.0% 60% 58% +15.4%
≤90d 219 +11.6% +1.0% 52% 48% +3.4%
all 536 +7.2% -3.0% 49% 47% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 47% -6.8%
10% -12.3% 46% -15.7%
15% -20.8% 45% -23.9%
20% -28.5% 44% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$410 vs −$370 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

421d coverage
Net worth$675
Realized−$1,825
Unrealized+$309
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses261 / 275
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$865
Open positions3
Markets (closed)536 / 539
History coverage421d ⚠
Avg bet$454
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 47¢ 100¢ $269 $571 +$302 (+112%)
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Shimabukuro 53¢ 57¢ $71 $77 +$6 (+8%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 41¢ 42¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 212 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$155 +152%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $468 −$464 -99%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $242 +$209 +86%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $519 +$514 +99%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $304 +$229 +75%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $383 −$150 -39%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $254 −$250 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $189 +$364 +192%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $254 +$193 +76%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $378 +$309 +82%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $342 +$243 +71%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $254 −$250 -98%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $581 −$572 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $357 −$350 -98%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $195 −$191 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $371 +$280 +76%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $278 −$273 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $426 −$422 -99%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $496 −$490 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $254 +$227 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $255 −$254 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $212 +$188 +89%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 14 $199 +$215 +108%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $259 +$525 +203%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $204 +$352 +172%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $397 −$391 -99%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $493 +$768 +156%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $457 −$450 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $694 −$689 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $504 −$302 -60%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $60 +$49 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $54 +$52 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $297 +$328 +110%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $407 +$548 +135%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $576 +$569 +99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $171 +$202 +118%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $200 +$255 +127%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $305 +$329 +108%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $303 −$300 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $354 +$471 +133%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $226 −$226 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $338 +$166 +49%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $547 +$691 +126%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $213 +$207 +97%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $224 +$272 +121%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $229 +$220 +96%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 84¢ $167 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 85¢ $34 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 48¢ $32 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 54¢ $51 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 6h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $1 8h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $4 9h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $1 9h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $14 9h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $1 9h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $6 10h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Shimabukuro 53¢ $31 10h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Shimabukuro 53¢ $1 12h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Shimabukuro 53¢ $40 12h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $305 12h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 32¢ $102 17h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 49¢ $102 18h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 81¢ $323 18h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 72¢ $129 18h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 44¢ $198 18h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 44¢ $66 18h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 41¢ $242 19h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 53¢ $51 20h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 70¢ $139 20h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 57¢ $152 20h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 85¢ $338 20h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 52¢ $74 20h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 41¢ $90 20h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 34¢ $153 21h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 40¢ $116 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $674.66 · official $676.68 (match) · 3500 history records