Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x300f…dd62 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$298 (+6%) realized +$618 · open −$320
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate70%19W / 8L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$193
14 days+$387
30 days+$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$22
other 37% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +3.3% -6.5% 68% 50% -5.0%
≤30d 26 +7.8% -2.5% 69% 50% -1.2%
≤90d 27 +7.8% -2.4% 70% 48% -1.2%
all 27 +7.8% -2.4% 70% 48% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 48% -1.2%
10% -11.8% 41% -10.7%
15% -20.3% 30% -19.3%
20% -28.1% 19% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$35 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$618
Unrealized−$320
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses19 / 8
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage58d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 72¢ 10¢ $375 $55 −$320 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $351 +$27 +8%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $303 +$48 +16%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $383 −$80 -21%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $206 +$54 +26%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $740 +$53 +7%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S Jun 26 $49 +$65 +131%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $501 +$44 +9%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $103 −$85 -82%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $30 +$13 +42%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $101 +$28 +27%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $50 +$11 +23%
Will FC København win on 2026-05-03? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $50 −$34 -68%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $30 −$18 -60%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 +$16 +51%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $56 +$30 +55%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$44 +44%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $354 +$9 +2%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $206 −$6 -3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$9 +42%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $206 +$186 +90%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso May 23 $113 +$10 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $378 37m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 85¢ $378 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $351 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $351 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $303 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $304 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $134 25h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $44 40h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 40h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 40h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 40h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 43h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $24 44h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 44h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 45h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 46h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $794 46h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $740 46h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 43¢ $49 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $501 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $30 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 27¢ $16 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $12 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $14 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.65 · official $54.65 (match) · 153 history records