Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:54:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x300e…8d02 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate83%30W / 6L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -6.8% -15.7% 83% 31% -7.0%
≤30d 36 -6.8% -15.7% 83% 31% -7.0%
≤90d 36 -6.8% -15.7% 83% 31% -7.0%
all 36 -6.8% -15.7% 83% 31% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 31% -7.0%
10% -23.7% 11% -15.9%
15% -31.1% 3% -24.0%
20% -37.9% 3% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses30 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage7d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.83 · official $7.83 (match) · 140 history records