Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x300c…333f other 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,786 (-13%) realized −$836 · open −$950
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%108W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days−$68
14 days+$145
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$98
politics 33% −$1,158
sports 27% −$377
crypto 3% −$12
world 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +10.3% -0.2% 63% 49% -14.0%
≤30d 78 -2.9% -12.1% 56% 46% -10.3%
≤90d 193 -7.1% -15.9% 56% 47% -14.2%
all 193 -7.1% -15.9% 56% 47% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 47% -14.2%
10% -24.0% 39% -22.4%
15% -31.3% 29% -29.9%
20% -38.1% 16% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$30 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$710
Realized−$836
Unrealized−$950
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses108 / 85
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions6
Markets (closed)193 / 199
History coverage74d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 14¢ $1,535 $625 −$910 (-59%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $46 $31 −$15 (-32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-15%)
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 55¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $12 −$20 (-62%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 40¢ 56¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Jun 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 21 $20 −$5 -22%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $21 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $72 −$8 -11%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$15 +48%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $62 +$15 +25%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $30 +$28 +93%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$6 +22%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $83 −$15 -17%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 20 $124 +$19 +15%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $22 −$14 -64%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $23 +$14 +61%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 +$11 +60%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$16 +81%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$15 +43%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $8 +$12 +150%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $74 −$6 -8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $24 +$10 +40%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $81 +$5 +6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $31 +$3 +9%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $24 +$13 +53%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $41 +$4 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$89 -88%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $104 +$108 +104%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $153 +$185 +121%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $89 −$50 -56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $22 +$11 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$3 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $90 +$101 +112%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 06 $30 +$2 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $25 +$7 +29%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 05 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $20 −$10 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World SELL Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $43 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $45 9h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $77 9h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 95¢ $37 13h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $36 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 19h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 83¢ $58 19h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 22h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 22h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 22h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 24h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $30 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $42 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 65¢ $31 34h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $42 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 52¢ $25 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $0 36h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $69 36h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 53¢ $142 36h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 40¢ $5 36h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $46 37h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $45 37h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $709.74 · official $709.74 (match) · 767 history records