Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:30:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x300c…6a92
world · 245 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$2,446 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,986 · open −$89
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,444
Realized+$1,986
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses134 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions58
Markets (closed)318 / 245
History coverage49d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day69.5
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 58 History 318 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,685
7 days−$1,476
14 days−$721
30 days+$712
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 81¢ $1,111 $1,255 +$144 (+13%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 73¢ 75¢ $610 $620 +$10 (+2%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 48¢ $258 $334 +$75 (+29%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $289 $289 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 94¢ 94¢ $282 $284 +$2 (+1%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $397 $280 −$117 (-29%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 83¢ 86¢ $250 $258 +$8 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 78¢ $265 $240 −$25 (-9%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 80¢ 76¢ $240 $228 −$12 (-5%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 56¢ 50¢ $249 $222 −$26 (-11%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 93¢ 95¢ $199 $204 +$5 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? No 82¢ 98¢ $164 $197 +$33 (+20%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $197 $191 −$6 (-3%)
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? No 78¢ 80¢ $156 $160 +$4 (+3%)
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? No 57¢ 64¢ $122 $137 +$14 (+12%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 36¢ 44¢ $108 $132 +$24 (+22%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 61¢ 74¢ $76 $92 +$16 (+20%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 79¢ 78¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 86¢ $88 $86 −$2 (-2%)
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? No 83¢ 84¢ $83 $84 +$1 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 87¢ 81¢ $87 $81 −$6 (-7%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 46¢ 16¢ $234 $80 −$155 (-66%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 40¢ 36¢ $86 $78 −$8 (-9%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 36¢ $96 $71 −$25 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12 Jun 12 $2 +$9 +510%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$8 -200%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less tha Jun 12 $5 −$7 -152%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 12 $127 −$319 -252%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or higher on March 17 Jun 12 $3 −$2 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 20? Jun 12 $6 −$9 -149%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 12 $289 −$516 -178%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? Jun 12 $2 +$17 +1139%
Military action against Iran ends on March 22, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Jun 12 $6 −$7 -114%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Theo launch a token by March 31 2026? Jun 12 $59 −$68 -115%
Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$9 -163%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 21? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -108%
Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $23 −$13 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 21? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +344%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Jun 12 $1 −$2 -171%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25? Jun 12 $8 −$17 -219%
Military action against Iran ends on March 21, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 26? Jun 12 $36 −$63 -175%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 17? Jun 12 $46 −$37 -80%
Military action against Iran ends on March 26, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -107%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 22? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ken Paxton come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -119%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March? Jun 12 $1 −$3 -275%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 28? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 13 Jun 12 $1 $0 -47%
ChatGPT Outage by May 1? Jun 12 $0 +$14 +3436%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 16? Jun 12 $3 −$21 -801%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,760 on the final trading day of Janua Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 16? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -72%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 22? Jun 12 $30 −$25 -85%
Clippers vs. Rockets Jun 12 $76 −$52 -68%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first roun Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on March 18, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 25? Jun 12 $0 $0 +100%
Will La U win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Re Jun 12 $1 −$1 -113%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 68% +$2,984
other 12% −$76
politics 12% +$266
tech 4% +$31
finance 2% +$473
sports 2% +$86
crypto 0% −$30
weather 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 43¢ $15 1h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 48¢ $17 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 43¢ $49 1h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 48¢ $55 1h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 47¢ $28 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 43¢ $32 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $79 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 47¢ $7 1h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu SELL Yes 8¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $42 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 47¢ $24 1h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $16 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $129 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $22 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 2h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 83¢ $83 2h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? SELL No 91¢ $45 2h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 90¢ $45 2h
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 2h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 63¢ $12 2h
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 2h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 68¢ $17 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 47¢ $52 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 64¢ $16 6h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $64 6h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 6h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 2¢ $2 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $66 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 +40.3% +26.9% 22% 16% -21.2%
≤30d 269 +28.8% +16.6% 38% 23% -7.7%
≤90d 318 +33.7% +20.9% 42% 25% -6.3%
all 318 +33.7% +20.9% 42% 25% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover69.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.9% 25% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here +9.4% 18% -15.3%
15% -1.2% 14% -23.5%
20% -10.9% 12% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,444.39 · official $6,444.64 (match) · 3500 history records