Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
30 0x300b…8e51 sports 520 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,772 (-4%) realized −$2,807 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%128W / 386L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Fees−$1,543est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$466
other 12% +$1,468
crypto 2% −$1,022
weather 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 33% +14.7%
≤30d 312 -27.0% -33.9% 26% 24% -3.3%
≤90d 514 -30.2% -36.9% 25% 23% -8.5%
all 514 -30.2% -36.9% 25% 23% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.9% 23% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 22% -17.2%
15% -48.4% 22% -25.2%
20% -53.5% 19% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$93 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized−$2,807
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses128 / 386
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,543
Open positions5
Markets (closed)514 / 520
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$142
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 23¢ 30¢ $227 $295 +$68 (+30%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 48¢ $44 $52 +$8 (+19%)
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 12¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $456 +$293 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $251 −$250 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $306 +$694 +226%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $86 +$82 +96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $267 +$822 +308%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $72 +$66 +92%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $217 −$217 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $217 −$217 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $391 −$184 -47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $167 −$167 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $448 +$391 +87%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $222 −$222 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $191 −$191 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $549 −$549 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $507 +$502 +99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $582 +$532 +91%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $117 +$611 +523%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $110 +$127 +115%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $56 −$27 -48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $321 +$335 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$15 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $289 +$591 +204%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $179 −$81 -45%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $543 +$515 +95%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $197 −$16 -8%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $316 −$316 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 9¢ $23 11m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 22¢ $56 12m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 36¢ $262 22m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 8¢ $50 27m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 8¢ $0 27m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 8¢ $1 28m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 8¢ $9 28m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 30¢ $153 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $749 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $36 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 64¢ $163 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $294 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $181 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 1¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 20¢ $50 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 32¢ $72 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 32¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $47 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $27 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $31 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $148 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $99 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 13¢ $47 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.02 · official $349.02 (match) · 3500 history records