Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

30 0x300b…42fa sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$95 (-11%) realized −$78 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%8W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$46per market

Trades / day12.7pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-24.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-16.2%	-24.2%	50%	50%	-23.0%
≤30d	16	-16.2%	-24.2%	50%	50%	-23.0%
≤90d	16	-16.2%	-24.2%	50%	50%	-23.0%
all	16	-16.2%	-24.2%	50%	50%	-23.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.2%	50%	-23.0%
10%	-31.5%	38%	-30.4%
15%	-38.1%	31%	-37.1%
20%	-44.2%	25%	-43.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late -31% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$37 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.61 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$43

Realized−$78

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses8 / 8

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage3d

Avg bet$46

Trades / day12.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Over	60¢	44¢	$50	$37	−$13 (-26%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Over	37¢	22¢	$10	$6	−$4 (-39%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$41	−$41	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$121	+$58	+48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$9	−$9	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$89	+$53	+60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$148	−$140	-95%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$10	+$14	+140%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$8	+83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	Jun 14	$31	−$25	-81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	Jun 14	$41	−$22	-53%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$111	+$27	+25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$69	+$9	+14%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$10	+$6	+60%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	−$8	-80%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$20	+$4	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	37¢	$10	1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$51	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$179	1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	67¢	$9	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$121	4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5	SELL Under	100¢	$142	28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	66¢	$78	28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	42¢	$10	28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	4¢	$8	28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	70¢	$48	30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	70¢	$50	30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	78¢	$50	31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	56¢	$41	31h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	41¢	$10	43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	54¢	$10	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$20	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	BUY Under	41¢	$10	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	31¢	$20	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	SELL Under	27¢	$6	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	SELL Over	31¢	$19	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	45¢	$10	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	BUY Over	48¢	$30	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	99¢	$138	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	89¢	$70	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	97¢	$79	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	56¢	$30	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	66¢	$40	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	85¢	$69	2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	99¢	$16	2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	61¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.16 · official $43.16 (match) · 43 history records