Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:26:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x300b…f636
sports · 593 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$10,263 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,326 · open −$1,849
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,644
Realized+$10,326
Unrealized−$1,849
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses329 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$4,727
Open positions10
Markets (closed)582 / 593
History coverage67d
Avg bet$841
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 10 History 582 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,593
7 days+$6,935
14 days−$438
30 days+$8,249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 70¢ 70¢ $3,500 $3,525 +$25 (+1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Under 69¢ 69¢ $2,070 $2,085 +$15 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $1,060 $1,090 +$30 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $700 $707 +$7 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 56¢ 56¢ $510 $510 +$0 (+0%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 39¢ 38¢ $300 $288 −$12 (-4%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 50¢ 50¢ $197 $195 −$2 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 22¢ 22¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $1,506 $56 −$1,450 (-96%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 51¢ 4¢ $500 $34 −$466 (-93%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1,508 $0 −$1,508 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 53¢ 0¢ $2,679 $0 −$2,679 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox 54¢ 0¢ $1,620 $0 −$1,620 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Matteo Berrettini 63¢ 0¢ $2,016 $0 −$2,016 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 32¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $983 $0 −$983 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Casper Ruud 61¢ 0¢ $1,525 $0 −$1,525 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 67¢ 0¢ $2,010 $0 −$2,010 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $1,015 $0 −$1,015 (-100%)
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $550 $0 −$550 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 65¢ 0¢ $1,040 $0 −$1,040 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 59¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 47¢ 0¢ $470 $0 −$470 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 38¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 0¢ $1,003 $0 −$1,003 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,495 +$803 +54%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3,650 +$1,345 +37%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6,035 −$6,022 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $1,500 +$1,500 +100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,539 −$1,539 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,012 +$1,186 +117%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1,014 +$909 +90%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,500 +$950 +63%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,004 −$1,003 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,527 −$1,508 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $990 +$810 +82%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,014 +$909 +90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $517 +$583 +113%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,012 +$666 +66%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,520 +$478 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $508 +$523 +103%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,497 +$765 +51%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $500 +$499 +100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1,534 +$806 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1,011 +$511 +50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $560 +$440 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,587 +$711 +45%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $508 −$25 -5%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $210 +$6 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,017 +$1,361 +134%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $1,472 +$1,131 +77%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $55 −$55 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $549 +$351 +64%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $536 +$263 +49%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $522 −$514 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $532 −$532 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1,015 +$732 +72%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $151 +$5 +3%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $610 +$389 +64%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $1,015 +$944 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $1,013 +$737 +73%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $1,175 +$825 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $1,200 +$796 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,056 −$1,038 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $997 −$983 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $811 +$208 +26%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $2,040 +$971 +48%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5,189 +$28 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% +$17,653
other 30% −$5,677
politics 3% −$484
crypto 1% +$36
finance 1% −$3,018
world 0% +$140
culture 0% −$176
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 70¢ $3,500 55m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $507 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,298 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $26 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $180 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $6 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $55 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $6 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $127 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $8 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $110 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $108 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $6 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $6 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $286 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $106 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $106 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $997 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $226 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +17.0% +5.9% 73% 58% -0.6%
≤30d 323 +2.9% -6.9% 59% 51% -7.4%
≤90d 582 +2.0% -7.7% 57% 52% -7.6%
all 582 +2.0% -7.7% 57% 52% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 52% -7.6%
10% -16.6% 50% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -24.6% 47% -24.5%
20% -32.0% 42% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,643.96 · official $8,644.26 (match) · 3500 history records