Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3009…be46 crypto 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$434 (-29%) realized −$528 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%51W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$127
other 19% −$276
sports 10% −$49
weather 3% −$27
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -23.8% -31.1% 49% 39% -21.6%
≤30d 65 -24.0% -31.3% 48% 38% -32.9%
≤90d 120 -26.4% -33.4% 40% 31% -34.2%
all 133 -29.5% -36.2% 38% 29% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 29% -44.7%
10% -42.3% 20% -50.0%
15% -47.9% 18% -54.8%
20% -53.0% 13% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$528
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses51 / 82
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage191d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $105 $151 +$46 (+43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Rockets Clippers 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 27? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - December 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 1? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $62 −$3 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 −$9 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$21 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$8 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY No 0¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 42¢ $20 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 44¢ $19 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 46¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 46¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 46¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 46¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 43¢ $20 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $5 8h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 3¢ $10 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 84¢ $14 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.04 · official $151.04 (match) · 280 history records