Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
30 0x3009…6c97 crypto 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+2%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 20% -7.8%
≤30d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 20% -7.8%
≤90d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 20% -7.8%
all 5 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 20% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 20% -7.8%
10% -16.4% 20% -16.6%
15% -24.5% 0% -24.7%
20% -31.9% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $32 −$11 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $32 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records