Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x3007…763a other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,888 (+4%) realized +$2,051 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$819per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$8,887now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 42% −$2,886
world 28% +$2,072
other 16% +$1,401
politics 13% +$1,500
crypto 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 1 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 5 -53.9% -58.3% 20% 20% -39.0%
all 40 +1.8% -7.9% 60% 52% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 52% -4.0%
10% -16.7% 38% -13.2%
15% -24.7% 20% -21.6%
20% -32.1% 18% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$397 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$8,887
Realized+$2,051
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)40 / 52
History coverage343d
Avg bet$819
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 85¢ 88¢ $3,900 $4,003 +$103 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $1,700 $1,637 −$63 (-4%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 55¢ 46¢ $1,300 $1,095 −$205 (-16%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 93¢ 95¢ $400 $405 +$5 (+1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $200 $220 +$20 (+10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No 71¢ 73¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 60¢ 50¢ $150 $126 −$24 (-16%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $101 −$2 -2%
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? Apr 13 $500 +$164 +33%
Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani? Apr 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Apr 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Senate pass funding bill by September 30? Apr 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Feb 02 $200 +$44 +22%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Feb 02 $600 +$8 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $200 +$47 +24%
Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner engaged in 2025? Feb 02 $500 +$88 +18%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Feb 02 $2,310 +$755 +33%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Feb 02 $2,000 +$1,168 +58%
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Octobe Oct 21 $100 +$56 +56%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 06 $1,020 −$532 -52%
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Oct 04 $500 −$9 -2%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 3? Oct 04 $200 +$43 +21%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET? Oct 01 $800 +$112 +14%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Oct 01 $100 −$10 -10%
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? Oct 01 $200 −$142 -71%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30? Sep 30 $280 +$79 +28%
OpenAI browser in 2025? Sep 25 $4,950 −$1,391 -28%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20? Sep 19 $500 +$267 +54%
Will Eric Adams drop out? Sep 15 $300 +$84 +28%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 15 $200 +$13 +7%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15? Sep 14 $100 +$61 +61%
Will Trump say "Al-Qaeda" during 9-11 memorial event? Sep 12 $100 −$100 -100%
OpenAI browser by August 31? Sep 08 $2,225 −$2,225 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his AI speech on July 23? Aug 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Tea App removed from App Store by August 31? Aug 25 $500 +$70 +14%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? Aug 07 $2,700 +$839 +31%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31? Aug 07 $4,674 +$1,260 +27%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Saturday? Jul 26 $3,600 +$1,698 +47%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 25 $1,200 −$1,030 -86%
Kristin Cabot out as Astronomer CPO in July? Jul 25 $300 +$830 +277%
Justin & Hailey Bieber divorce in 2025? Jul 24 $300 +$17 +6%
Will Trump say "Biden" during his AI speech on July 23? Jul 23 $200 +$44 +22%
Will Trump say "Nvidia" during his AI speech on July 23? Jul 23 $200 +$130 +65%
Will Trump say "Beautiful coal" or "Clean coal" during his AI speech o Jul 20 $200 −$56 -28%
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? Jul 20 $600 +$530 +88%
1,350+ Measles cases in U.S. before August? Jul 19 $200 −$100 -50%
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025? Jul 18 $100 −$32 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $99 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 10¢ $207 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 21h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 22h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $300 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $100 24h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 65¢ $51 24h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 61¢ $51 24h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 56¢ $51 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $100 26h
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? BUY No 71¢ $200 37h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $200 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 44¢ $100 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 42¢ $100 47h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 39¢ $100 47h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $502 47h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $300 47h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $100 47h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $100 47h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $100 47h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $1,000 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $104 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $104 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $1,000 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $200 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1,000 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $1,000 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $1,000 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,887.07 · official $8,887.07 (match) · 296 history records