Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3003…0df9 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$107 (-24%) realized −$106 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$86
14 days−$96
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$111
sports 3% −$4
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +2.3% -7.4% 50% 50% -38.8%
≤30d 21 -19.8% -27.4% 43% 38% -41.2%
≤90d 21 -19.8% -27.4% 43% 38% -41.2%
all 21 -19.8% -27.4% 43% 38% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 38% -41.2%
10% -34.4% 38% -46.8%
15% -40.7% 33% -52.0%
20% -46.5% 19% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage15d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $60 −$58 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $34 +$27 +81%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $26 +$8 +31%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $5 $0 -1%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +126%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 +$4 +69%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $103 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $60 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $34 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $22 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 13d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 13d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 14d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 14d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 14d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.46 · official $101.46 (match) · 40 history records