Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3003…3e73 politics 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$20
politics 37% −$20
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
sports 2% +$55
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 -0.0% -9.5% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 127 +1.6% -8.0% 7% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 4% -9.5%
10% -16.8% 4% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×14.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage123d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 20 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $263 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $300 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $356 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $48 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $525 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $228 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $265 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $273 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $310 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 19 $252 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $841 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $248 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $284 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 15 $324 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $305 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $274 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $224 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $244 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $244 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $260 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 09 $251 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $293 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $296 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $256 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $335 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $46 7d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $46 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 13d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $36 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $36 17d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 17d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.97 · official $64.97 (match) · 386 history records