Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x3003…efa3 world 285 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$641 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$606
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%158W / 117L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$246
14 days+$224
30 days+$758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$250
other 31% +$1,485
politics 12% −$647
crypto 2% +$268
tech 1% −$76
culture 0% −$200
sports 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +48.2% +34.1% 83% 83% +11.6%
≤30d 42 +6.6% -3.5% 64% 55% -2.1%
≤90d 79 -1.6% -10.9% 56% 49% -7.0%
all 275 +2.9% -6.9% 57% 49% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 49% -9.5%
10% -15.8% 35% -18.2%
15% -24.0% 24% -26.1%
20% -31.4% 18% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$81 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$2,305
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$606
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses158 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)275 / 285
History coverage246d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $600 $607 +$7 (+1%)
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? No 45¢ 95¢ $191 $408 +$217 (+114%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 43¢ 65¢ $217 $326 +$109 (+50%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 84¢ $212 $274 +$62 (+29%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 44¢ 80¢ $138 $248 +$110 (+80%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 91¢ 90¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 56¢ 96¢ $71 $121 +$50 (+70%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? No 45¢ 56¢ $48 $60 +$12 (+24%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30? Yes 6¢ 17¢ $12 $33 +$21 (+177%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? Yes 6¢ 19¢ $10 $30 +$20 (+197%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? Jun 27 $134 +$76 +57%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 27 $59 +$38 +64%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $52 +$17 +33%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $141 −$11 -8%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 26 $622 +$66 +11%
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 23 $45 +$60 +133%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $217 +$27 +12%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $264 −$251 -95%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $430 +$50 +12%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $268 +$60 +22%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $166 +$67 +40%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $192 +$93 +48%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $80 −$4 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $135 $0 +0%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 14 $143 −$59 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $307 +$78 +25%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 13 $59 +$13 +22%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 13 $30 −$2 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $57 +$11 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $231 +$53 +23%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $602 +$40 +7%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 08 $679 +$42 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $100 −$43 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $96 −$13 -13%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 07 $296 −$295 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $652 +$20 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $31 −$23 -75%
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election Jun 05 $112 +$21 +19%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 05 $180 +$21 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 05 $13 −$12 -94%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $586 +$85 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $241 +$15 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 03 $804 +$95 +12%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 02 $184 −$65 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $225 −$26 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $123 +$76 +62%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 01 $124 +$320 +259%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 29 $202 +$61 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $200 −$24 -12%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 29 $182 +$83 +46%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 28 $190 +$85 +44%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 26 $54 −$34 -64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $120 −$57 -47%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31? May 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? May 23 $323 −$1 -0%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31? May 23 $88 −$6 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $200 −$86 -43%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 91¢ $201 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $210 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 61¢ $0 12h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 65¢ $67 13h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 13h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 13h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 13h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 62¢ $29 13h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 13h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 13h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 13h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 13h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 97¢ $97 19h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 19h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $52 19h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $80 24h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 57¢ $57 24h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 56¢ $7 24h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 63¢ $130 27h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 35¢ $10 37h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $19 37h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $13 37h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $15 37h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $600 37h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 37¢ $74 43h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 36¢ $30 44h
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $104 4d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 67¢ $141 5d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 79¢ $172 5d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 91¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,304.52 · official $2,304.18 (match) · 1020 history records