Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:21:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x3000…9eb1
crypto · 245 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
+$4,739 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,655 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized+$4,655
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses121 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)242 / 245
History coverage14d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day230.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 5 History 242 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,043
7 days−$570
14 days+$4,172
30 days+$4,655
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? No 70¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 70¢ 83¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+19%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 15¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? No 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $144 +$128 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $149 +$156 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $436 +$491 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $360 −$360 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $442 −$442 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $452 −$452 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $270 −$270 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $462 −$462 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $683 −$657 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $786 −$786 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $920 −$920 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $629 +$1,067 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $717 +$783 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $908 +$858 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $557 +$581 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $887 +$1,113 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $92 +$104 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$9 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $401 −$401 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $456 −$456 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $480 −$480 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $583 −$583 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $824 −$824 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $896 −$896 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $346 +$861 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $854 +$824 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $1,442 +$1,458 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $1,423 +$1,451 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $292 +$421 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $307 −$307 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2,747 −$2,539 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $70 +$69 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $233 +$217 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $340 −$340 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $384 −$82 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $264 −$264 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $604 +$604 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $257 +$243 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12AM ET Jun 09 $370 −$370 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $380 −$380 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $409 −$409 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $259 +$241 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% +$6,968
weather 8% −$1,735
sports 1% −$572
other 0% $0
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $109 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $149 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $24 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $47 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $60 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +1.5% -8.2% 41% 41% -10.7%
≤30d 242 +8.7% -1.7% 50% 50% -3.8%
≤90d 242 +8.7% -1.7% 50% 50% -3.8%
all 242 +8.7% -1.7% 50% 50% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover230.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 50% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 49% -13.0%
15% -19.7% 48% -21.4%
20% -27.6% 47% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.52 · official $8.52 (match) · 3500 history records