Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2ffe…aa16 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$15 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate63%46W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$21
other 17% +$17
sports 8% +$26
crypto 8% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.2% -25.1% 54% 31% -3.4%
≤30d 20 -16.3% -24.3% 55% 30% -7.0%
≤90d 73 -10.1% -18.6% 63% 36% -9.4%
all 73 -10.1% -18.6% 63% 36% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 36% -9.4%
10% -26.4% 23% -18.0%
15% -33.5% 10% -26.0%
20% -40.0% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses46 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage66d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $101 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $252 +$24 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $78 +$21 +27%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$9 -79%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$5 -41%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $336 +$16 +5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -52%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1,229 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2PM ET May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 11 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 23 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 22 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 22 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 22 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 22 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 22 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 22 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 22 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 22 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 22 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 22 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 22 $3 +$1 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $92 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $276 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $53 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $21 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 7h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $61 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $17 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 31h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 35h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $78 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $243 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.65 · official $97.20 (match) · 229 history records