Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2ffc…c66f weather 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$105 (-1%) realized −$106 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%102W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$29
14 days+$40
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% −$226
sports 14% +$58
other 6% −$86
politics 3% +$17
world 1% −$52
culture 1% +$12
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +6.8% -3.4% 50% 43% -4.3%
≤30d 90 -9.7% -18.3% 43% 36% -14.5%
≤90d 252 -13.3% -21.6% 40% 35% -12.9%
all 253 -13.2% -21.4% 40% 35% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 35% -12.7%
10% -29.0% 30% -21.0%
15% -35.8% 25% -28.7%
20% -42.1% 19% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses102 / 151
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)253 / 255
History coverage96d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $55 +$27 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $36 −$7 -19%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 $0 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 −$21 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $44 +$15 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 −$27 -81%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$15 +50%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$7 -46%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 +$41 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$12 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$21 -80%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$11 -88%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$25 +480%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$20 +96%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$14 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$12 -80%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$14 -86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$19 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$3 +15%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$12 +114%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $35 −$34 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $41 −$28 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $76 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $22 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 44¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 60¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 34¢ $23 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 14h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 36¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 31h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 32h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 59¢ $24 32h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.98 · official $70.98 (match) · 914 history records