Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2ffc…1a9e other 172 markets active 3h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$98 (+8%) realized +$98 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%93W / 77L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$30
14 days+$36
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$34
sports 41% +$72
crypto 3% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 57% -0.7%
≤30d 33 -6.1% -15.1% 58% 58% -0.8%
≤90d 102 +1.1% -8.5% 59% 57% +1.4%
all 170 -3.5% -12.7% 55% 51% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 51% -2.5%
10% -21.1% 50% -11.9%
15% -28.7% 39% -20.4%
20% -35.7% 28% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses93 / 77
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)170 / 172
History coverage206d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $8 −$7 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 +$9 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$2 -24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +29%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$6 +38%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 +$6 +32%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 −$5 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $16 +$5 +29%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6 +$5 +97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$8 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $16 +$18 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +111%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +89%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $9 +$8 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $11 −$11 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina May 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek May 13 $4 +$2 +39%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $3 −$2 -99%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score May 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $22 +$6 +29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $4 −$3 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $8 13h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $9 17h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 56¢ $8 17h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 33h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 38h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 38h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 40h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 44h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $15 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $9 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $19 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $6 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $10 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $16 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $33 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.84 · official $9.84 (match) · 304 history records