Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:52:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2ffb…4666 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 493d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%43W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$1
other 20% −$1
politics 9% $0
tech 8% $0
economics 7% $0
sports 3% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

493d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses43 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage493d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? Apr 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? Jan 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 03 $31 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 04 $9 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian el Apr 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 08 $21 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +2%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Sima win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 28d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $41 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 90d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 91d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 148d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 150d
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? BUY No 100¢ $12 180d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $33 182d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $32 211d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $5 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 241d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 99¢ $31 242d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 271d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 99¢ $31 274d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $3 300d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? BUY No 100¢ $17 302d
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? BUY No 100¢ $27 303d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $6 332d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $13 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? BUY No 100¢ $27 335d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $9 363d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 364d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.69 · official $43.69 (match) · 118 history records