Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2ff9…cd4e world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$5
politics 22% $0
other 12% $0
tech 5% $0
weather 3% −$7
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 44% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 56% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 56% 0% -9.0%
all 44 -2.0% -11.4% 27% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage320d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $94 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $46 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $98 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 13 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Aug 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 10 $45 +$1 +1%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Aug 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 07 $1 $0 +9%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 07 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on August 7? Aug 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $5 $0 -4%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on Augu Aug 07 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 91°F or higher on Aug Aug 05 $1 $0 -56%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 05 $0 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Aug 05 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $18 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $28 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $55 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $45 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $14 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $33 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $33 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $14 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $18 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $23 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records