Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:34:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2F 0x2ff8…412f sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$175 (+54%) realized +$155 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +148% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +125% what you keep after slip
Net edge+125%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days+$148
14 days+$139
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$17
other 25% +$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+124.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +171.1% +145.3% 36% 36% -6.7%
≤30d 12 +148.5% +124.8% 33% 33% -10.6%
≤90d 12 +148.5% +124.8% 33% 33% -10.6%
all 12 +148.5% +124.8% 33% 33% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +124.8% 33% -10.6%
10% +103.3% 33% -19.2%
15% +83.7% 33% -27.0%
20% +65.7% 33% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +149% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +353% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$16 · ×4.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage7d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 31¢ 56¢ $25 $45 +$20 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $34 +$143 +423%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $26 +$55 +214%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 +$53 +206%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 −$7 -12%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$21 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 −$6 -39%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 96¢ $175 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $34 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 15h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $53 20h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 94¢ $225 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $49 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $7 27h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $5 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 49¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.09 · official $42.34 · 21 history records