Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2F 0x2ff8…33b1 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+3%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$44
sports 31% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -23.3% -30.6% 44% 39% +3.9%
≤30d 18 -23.3% -30.6% 44% 39% +3.9%
≤90d 18 -23.3% -30.6% 44% 39% +3.9%
all 18 -23.3% -30.6% 44% 39% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 39% +3.9%
10% -37.3% 22% -6.1%
15% -43.3% 17% -15.1%
20% -48.9% 17% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage6d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $61 +$41 +67%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$5 +14%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $35 +$5 +13%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 $0 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -89%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $35 +$12 +35%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$17 -86%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $45 +$8 +18%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$26 +128%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 87¢ $35 26h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 29h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 46h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 46h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $45 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.70 · official $4.70 (match) · 38 history records