Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2ff6…7c7b
world · 55 markets active 2h ago
10.0score
+$748 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,462 · open −$714
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,313
Realized+$1,462
Unrealized−$714
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions28
Markets (closed)27 / 55
History coverage35d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 28 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$677
30 days+$1,048
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $500 $529 +$29 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $500 $512 +$12 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 70¢ 40¢ $500 $289 −$211 (-42%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 59¢ 30¢ $500 $252 −$248 (-50%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 48¢ 78¢ $100 $161 +$61 (+61%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $200 $148 −$52 (-26%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $200 $122 −$78 (-39%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 48¢ 58¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 89¢ 94¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 75¢ 78¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Pacquiao 38¢ 38¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 30¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 82¢ $92 $89 −$3 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 48¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $75 $70 −$5 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 16¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $100 $56 −$44 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$427 +142%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$39 +39%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$142 +71%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$37 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $53 +$225 +426%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week? May 18 $101 +$40 +39%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? May 16 $103 +$79 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 11? May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 10 $100 +$7 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 10 $103 −$100 -97%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 10 $202 +$85 +42%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 10 $102 +$453 +442%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $102 +$398 +388%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $101 +$74 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 09 $103 +$66 +64%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% −$206
sports 17% +$891
other 10% −$101
politics 9% +$44
crypto 6% +$245
finance 2% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $100 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $102 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $203 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $205 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $92 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $500 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $500 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $500 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $500 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 34¢ $200 20d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 47¢ $100 20d
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 32d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $100 32d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $100 32d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 33d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $200 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $100 33d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $105 33d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 33d
Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week? BUY No 71¢ $101 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? BUY Yes 18¢ $53 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? BUY Yes 55¢ $103 33d
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? BUY No 41¢ $100 33d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $100 33d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $100 33d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +86.6% +68.8% 100% 90% +55.5%
≤90d 27 +29.0% +16.7% 59% 52% +37.1%
all 27 +29.0% +16.7% 59% 52% +37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 52% +37.1%
10% +5.5% 48% +24.0%
15% -4.7% 41% +12.0%
20% -14.0% 30% +1.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,312.72 · official $4,312.78 (match) · 114 history records