Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2F 0x2ff4…827d other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$40 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$22
crypto 41% −$4
politics 3% $0
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-56.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -51.3% -56.0% 22% 22% -6.9%
≤30d 9 -51.3% -56.0% 22% 22% -6.9%
≤90d 9 -51.3% -56.0% 22% 22% -6.9%
all 9 -51.3% -56.0% 22% 22% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.0% 22% -6.9%
10% -60.2% 22% -15.8%
15% -64.0% 11% -23.9%
20% -67.6% 11% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage7d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 74¢ 42¢ $75 $43 −$32 (-43%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $94 +$23 +24%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +140%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.32 · official $83.52 (match) · 20 history records