Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2ff2…f1f4 other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 76L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$16
other 12% −$2
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 78 -0.5% -9.9% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage628d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Michael Brennan win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Mar 10 $51 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jusuf Nurkic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Martin Small announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will another Trump coin be first to reach $1b? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jane Timken be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Dec 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will CeeDee Lamb be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.34°C? Dec 19 $0 $0 -1%
No change in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Red Bulls win the 2024 MLS Cup? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Siversk before December? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $0 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Nov 22-29? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 17h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 15d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 31d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 32d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 36d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 36d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 42d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 42d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 64d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 65d
Will Michael Brennan win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $50 70d
Will Michael Brennan win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $50 70d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 81d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 82d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 91d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 92d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $50 94d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $47 95d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $3 95d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? SELL No 98¢ $50 98d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? BUY No 100¢ $51 98d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 99¢ $51 101d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 99¢ $51 102d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 105d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 105d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 108d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 108d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records