trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 3 | -40.8% | -46.4% | 0% | 0% | -29.7% |
| all | 27 | -25.8% | -32.9% | 11% | 7% | -23.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -32.9% | 7% | -23.7% |
| 10% | -39.3% | 4% | -31.0% |
| 15% | -45.2% | 4% | -37.7% |
| 20% | -50.6% | 4% | -43.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $39 | $39 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kings vs. Canucks | Apr 14 | $114 | −$114 | -100% |
| Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 30 | $13 | −$3 | -22% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 22 | $398 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 13? | Mar 13 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Mar 11 | $4 | −$3 | -89% |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | Feb 08 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | Jan 26 | $33 | −$33 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET | Jan 22 | $60 | +$140 | +233% |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | Jan 22 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 21 | $184 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? | Jan 19 | $21 | −$6 | -28% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | Jan 16 | $2 | $0 | -20% |
| Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jan 14 | $4 | −$1 | -30% |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jan 11 | $187 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 08 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Dec 26 | $1 | −$1 | -67% |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 23 | $17 | +$2 | +11% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Dec 10 | $4 | −$2 | -42% |
| Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? | Dec 04 | $188 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 30 | $385 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Nov 27 | $14 | −$2 | -12% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Nov 25 | $5 | −$1 | -13% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Nov 19 | $15 | −$1 | -9% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Nov 13 | $15 | −$2 | -10% |
| Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 10 | $202 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? | Nov 07 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 29 | $263 | −$263 | -100% |