Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2fee…b930 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-11%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$9
other 41% −$5
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -11.0% -19.5% 67% 33% +6.6%
≤30d 3 -11.0% -19.5% 67% 33% +6.6%
≤90d 3 -11.0% -19.5% 67% 33% +6.6%
all 4 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 25% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 25% +6.2%
10% -23.7% 25% -3.9%
15% -31.1% 25% -13.2%
20% -37.8% 25% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage164d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 06 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $5 20h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $10 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 4d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 161d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $1.20 (match) · 9 history records