Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2F 0x2fed…7b2f crypto 109 markets active 18h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+2%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate60%65W / 44L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$38
14 days−$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -42.1% -47.6% 38% 38% -63.1%
≤30d 109 -5.8% -14.8% 60% 46% -8.7%
≤90d 109 -5.8% -14.8% 60% 46% -8.7%
all 109 -5.8% -14.8% 60% 46% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 46% -8.7%
10% -23.0% 34% -17.5%
15% -30.4% 29% -25.4%
20% -37.2% 20% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses65 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage23d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $41 −$11 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$8 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 06 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 29 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 29 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 29 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 29 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $30 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $41 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $41 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 213 history records