Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2fec…e102 other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$12
politics 35% −$11
crypto 6% −$1
sports 6% −$19
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 -1.4% -10.8% 4% 3% -9.5%
all 117 -3.4% -12.6% 5% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×12.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 111
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage113d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $201 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $224 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $201 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $225 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $233 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $290 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $416 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $451 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $186 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $184 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $224 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $196 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $170 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $222 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $344 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $223 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $162 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $227 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $417 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $210 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $187 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 27 $188 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $188 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $233 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $195 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $198 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $195 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $129 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $308 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $259 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $111 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 19d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 19d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $224 24d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $224 25d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $201 25d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $201 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $225 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $225 28d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $233 28d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $233 29d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $161 29d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $161 30d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $222 31d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $222 33d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 33d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 34d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $178 34d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $178 36d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $205 36d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $205 36d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $209 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 356 history records