Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2F 0x2fea…f2c9 sports 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%58W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$72
14 days+$63
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$7
other 44% +$61
crypto 3% −$15
world 1% −$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +0.9% -8.7% 61% 61% +3.0%
≤30d 111 -12.3% -20.6% 52% 52% -3.7%
≤90d 111 -12.3% -20.6% 52% 52% -3.7%
all 112 -13.1% -21.3% 52% 52% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 52% -4.6%
10% -28.9% 50% -13.7%
15% -35.7% 41% -22.1%
20% -42.0% 24% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses58 / 54
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 120
History coverage606d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $60 +$15 +24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$2 +40%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $6 +$4 +59%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 27 $3 +$6 +234%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots Jun 26 $3 −$2 -95%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 26 $3 −$2 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 +$3 +31%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$4 +42%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $9 −$9 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $45 +$15 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +65%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Switzerland vs. Cana Jun 24 $5 +$2 +44%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$7 +43%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 +$4 +82%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 −$1 -21%
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? Jun 24 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$7 +46%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $40 +$12 +31%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +43%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $12 −$7 -58%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $5 $0 -6%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $8 +$5 +57%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +134%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $7 +$5 +70%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $6 −$6 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$28 +78%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 +$3 +84%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $9 −$3 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $75 1h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $60 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $9 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Alger BUY 26¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2h
England leading at halftime? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 65¢ $10 3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 4.5 Corners AND Algeria vs. Austria: Au BUY 25¢ $10 3h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $6 3h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026 BUY 61¢ $5 27h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 28h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY Yes 39¢ $3 29h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 69¢ $10 29h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $3 33h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 33h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $5 33h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 33h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $9 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.30 · official $14.39 (match) · 236 history records