Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fe8…03c5 crypto 359 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$491 (+1%) realized +$506 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate85%306W / 52L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$16
14 days−$261
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$598
sports 5% −$92
other 3% −$99
economics 0% +$5
tech 0% +$9
world 0% +$4
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.0% -1.4% 100% 25% -1.7%
≤30d 59 -2.4% -11.7% 75% 15% -11.9%
≤90d 119 -0.5% -10.0% 82% 12% -10.3%
all 358 +2.7% -7.1% 85% 25% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 25% -8.4%
10% -16.0% 9% -17.2%
15% -24.1% 6% -25.2%
20% -31.6% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$30 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$506
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses306 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)358 / 359
History coverage241d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? No 93¢ 50¢ $32 $17 −$15 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 24 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $27 +$4 +16%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $25 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $23 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $22 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $17 +$3 +17%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $55 −$40 -73%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $92 −$37 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $90 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $83 +$7 +9%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $77 +$6 +8%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $73 +$4 +5%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $68 +$5 +7%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $144 +$5 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $95 −$2 -2%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 +$19 +38%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 $0 -15%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +550%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $317 +$8 +3%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $89 −$76 -85%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $311 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $297 +$15 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $286 +$9 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $265 +$20 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $254 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $243 +$17 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $228 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $114 +$11 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $220 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $220 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $201 +$13 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $135 +$5 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 93¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY No 96¢ $31 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY No 85¢ $27 20h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 94¢ $25 23h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $25 23h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 91¢ $23 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $22 46h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 95¢ $21 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $19 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 85¢ $17 5d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY No 90¢ $15 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 21¢ $15 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $55 9d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 24¢ $16 9d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 86¢ $92 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $92 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $90 9d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY No 92¢ $65 9d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY No 92¢ $18 9d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? SELL No 100¢ $83 9d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY No 92¢ $77 9d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? BUY No 95¢ $73 10d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? SELL No 100¢ $73 10d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 66¢ $5 10d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 93¢ $68 10d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 60¢ $3 10d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $101 10d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL No 95¢ $55 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $113 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.03 · official $17.03 (match) · 1078 history records