Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fe7…03e0 other 293 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$773 (+4%) realized +$339 · open +$434
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%100W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$260
7 days+$260
14 days+$224
30 days+$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$502
other 14% +$128
economics 12% −$84
culture 10% −$20
politics 10% +$256
finance 4% −$100
tech 2% +$96
sports 2% −$197
crypto 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +90.0% +71.9% 100% 100% +100.4%
≤30d 14 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 50% +15.1%
≤90d 80 -11.1% -19.5% 51% 42% -2.1%
all 258 -22.9% -30.2% 39% 33% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 33% -7.6%
10% -36.9% 25% -16.4%
15% -43.0% 20% -24.5%
20% -48.6% 14% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$20 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$2,500
Realized+$339
Unrealized+$434
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses100 / 158
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions35
Markets (closed)258 / 293
History coverage222d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 23¢ 90¢ $99 $390 +$291 (+295%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 72¢ 80¢ $288 $321 +$33 (+12%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $213 $261 +$49 (+23%)
ECB rate cut in 2026? No 62¢ 86¢ $118 $164 +$47 (+40%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 91¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026? No 58¢ 72¢ $116 $145 +$29 (+25%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 29¢ 57¢ $62 $121 +$59 (+95%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $114 $111 −$3 (-2%)
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+4%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $102 $95 −$7 (-7%)
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $97 $89 −$8 (-8%)
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? No 39¢ 87¢ $39 $87 +$48 (+123%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 31¢ 29¢ $68 $64 −$4 (-6%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 25¢ $10 $56 +$46 (+460%)
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? No 40¢ 85¢ $20 $43 +$23 (+112%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes 45¢ 28¢ $55 $35 −$20 (-37%)
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Yes 77¢ 96¢ $24 $30 +$6 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $14 $16 +$3 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? Yes 56¢ 61¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Yes 43¢ 16¢ $29 $11 −$19 (-64%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $48 $8 −$40 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $200 +$252 +126%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $14 +$8 +54%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $112 −$13 -12%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 08 $24 +$3 +13%
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this we Jun 07 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 04 $346 −$127 -37%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $87 +$4 +4%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 02 $37 −$36 -99%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $280 +$120 +43%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $200 +$66 +33%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 31 $251 +$109 +43%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $28 +$31 +114%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m May 22 $4 +$17 +448%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? May 20 $1 $0 -23%
Will Drake have a #1 hit in May? May 16 $211 +$54 +26%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this May 15 $2 +$3 +150%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in May? May 15 $83 +$12 +14%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $253 +$110 +44%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 14 $202 +$2 +1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 14 $30 +$6 +19%
French election called by June 30, 2026? May 12 $66 +$25 +38%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 12 $465 +$10 +2%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? May 11 $16 +$9 +58%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $175 −$11 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $55 −$4 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 08 $587 −$79 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $50 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $150 +$114 +76%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we May 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this May 07 $209 −$207 -99%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $152 +$31 +21%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 01 $180 +$18 +10%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $80 +$30 +37%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 28 $203 +$110 +54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 25 $202 −$201 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 24 $200 +$25 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $531 −$155 -29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $373 −$55 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $744 +$406 +55%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $259 +$45 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $152 +$32 +21%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $3 +$1 +20%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 19 $200 +$59 +30%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $168 −$68 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 6¢ $8 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 6¢ $5 9h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 11h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 11h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $50 10d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 10d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $19 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 45¢ $100 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 10d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $99 10d
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 13d
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 13d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 17¢ $85 14d
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 14d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 79¢ $27 14d
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this we BUY Yes 34¢ $7 15d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $98 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $5 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $5 15d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $24 16d
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $30 17d
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 17d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $292 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,499.96 · official $2,499.98 (match) · 1515 history records