Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2F 0x2fe7…0c14 crypto 639 markets active 1h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate53%334W / 299L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$33
14 days+$42
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$575
sports 16% +$229
other 0% −$8
world 0% +$1
politics 0% −$22
weather 0% −$8
economics 0% −$4
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -23.7% -30.9% 37% 20% -8.5%
≤30d 101 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 29% -10.6%
≤90d 274 -9.5% -18.1% 55% 36% -10.0%
all 633 -12.3% -20.6% 53% 31% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 31% -11.3%
10% -28.2% 20% -19.8%
15% -35.2% 15% -27.5%
20% -41.5% 11% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$368
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses334 / 299
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions6
Markets (closed)633 / 639
History coverage370d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 633 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 95¢ 88¢ $284 $264 −$20 (-7%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Nigeria 75¢ 100¢ $75 $100 +$25 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Up 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Up 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $60 +$40 +67%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 19 $85 −$25 -29%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $80 +$20 +25%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $103 +$110 +107%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $221 −$21 -10%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $160 +$50 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $403 −$5 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$10 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $101 +$37 +37%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $25 −$2 -8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $168 −$51 -30%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $112 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $98 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $110 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$2 +2%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 $0 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $81 +$90 +111%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $99 −$3 -3%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $15 +$85 +567%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 10¢ $0 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 10¢ $3 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 10¢ $2 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 75¢ $71 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 75¢ $4 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 95¢ $136 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 95¢ $100 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 95¢ $47 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 10¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 91¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 87¢ $1 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 30¢ $11 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 30¢ $5 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 30¢ $4 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 30¢ $3 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 30¢ $7 14h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China SELL Namibia 100¢ $100 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 30¢ $20 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 30¢ $6 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 30¢ $4 16h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Namibia 60¢ $7 20h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Namibia 60¢ $53 20h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 75¢ $3 21h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 75¢ $4 21h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 75¢ $45 21h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 75¢ $6 21h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 75¢ $15 21h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 75¢ $1 21h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 5¢ $5 22h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 25¢ $25 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.74 · official $367.71 (match) · 2330 history records