Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2fe6…1d65
sports · 669 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$478 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$469 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$324
Realized−$469
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses346 / 301
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions22
Markets (closed)647 / 669
History coverage56d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 22 History 647 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$104
14 days+$93
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 45¢ 72¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+59%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 52¢ $29 $25 −$3 (-12%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 62¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 52¢ 54¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $9 $20 +$11 (+113%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 50¢ 48¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 15¢ 22¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 56¢ 80¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Under 45¢ 46¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 51¢ 52¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 57¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 35¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 59¢ 20¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-65%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 58¢ 20¢ $16 $6 −$11 (-66%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 36¢ 4¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-90%)
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 95¢ 98¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $10 +$9 +99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $10 −$8 -86%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 +$14 +152%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$24 +249%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +67%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$12 +128%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $10 +$9 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $9 −$8 -84%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $9 +$7 +73%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $9 +$8 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $10 +$9 +93%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $10 +$11 +113%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $29 +$36 +122%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $39 +$31 +80%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $10 +$9 +88%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $20 +$19 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $9 +$9 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $9 +$9 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $9 +$10 +105%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $9 +$10 +105%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $9 +$9 +101%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $9 +$13 +140%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $40 −$2 -4%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $20 +$15 +78%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $9 +$9 +101%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $10 +$18 +180%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $20 +$9 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 90% −$501
other 8% +$72
crypto 2% −$43
world 0% +$2
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 95¢ $19 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 9¢ $1 1h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 1h
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY No 71¢ $3 4h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $10 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $9 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $10 5h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $10 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $10 5h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 7h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 8h
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY No 71¢ $4 9h
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY No 71¢ $4 9h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 10h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 13h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 13h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 13h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 13h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 28¢ $9 14h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $6 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 +2.4% -7.3% 57% 53% -5.7%
≤30d 554 +1.4% -8.2% 56% 54% -10.7%
≤90d 647 -1.5% -10.8% 53% 50% -13.7%
all 647 -1.5% -10.8% 53% 50% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 50% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 46% -21.9%
15% -27.2% 41% -29.5%
20% -34.3% 34% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.95 · official $323.44 (match) · 2817 history records