Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2fe6…7820 other 19 markets active 9h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6,149 (-32%) realized −$6,149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,011per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$302
7 days−$4,336
14 days−$4,336
30 days−$4,336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$2,028
other 32% −$4,606
sports 12% +$485
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -31.1% -37.7% 29% 29% -69.4%
≤30d 7 -31.1% -37.7% 29% 29% -69.4%
≤90d 7 -31.1% -37.7% 29% 29% -69.4%
all 17 -17.2% -25.1% 59% 18% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 18% -39.7%
10% -32.2% 18% -45.4%
15% -38.8% 6% -50.7%
20% -44.8% 6% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$718) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$1,071 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$691
Realized−$6,149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage230d
Avg bet$1,011
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $386 $378 −$8 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $305 $313 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $423 −$414 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $729 −$718 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $321 +$830 +259%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $647 −$638 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $866 +$203 +23%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $243 −$237 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,384 −$3,361 -99%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 08 $10,729 −$2,028 -19%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Feb 08 $10 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Feb 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Feb 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Feb 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Feb 08 $10 $0 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Feb 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 08 $10 $0 +3%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $999 +$314 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $311 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $395 9h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 14h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $421 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $729 14h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,150 45h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $321 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $647 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $625 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $444 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $243 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $766 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3,384 3d
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla SELL Yes 62¢ $8,701 132d
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla BUY Yes 77¢ $10,729 132d
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? BUY No 28¢ $100 215d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 220d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 98¢ $10 220d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $10 220d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 220d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $10 220d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $10 220d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $10 220d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $1,313 230d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 76¢ $999 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $690.89 · official $690.89 (match) · 35 history records