Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:13:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2F 0x2fe5…6276 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,267 (+51%) realized +$1,269 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 81% −$1,575
other 16% −$64
crypto 3% −$19
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -68.1% -71.2% 25% 0% -79.5%
≤30d 5 -74.5% -76.9% 20% 0% -79.6%
≤90d 26 -13.2% -21.4% 38% 31% -77.6%
all 26 -13.2% -21.4% 38% 31% -77.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 31% -77.6%
10% -28.9% 27% -79.7%
15% -35.8% 27% -81.7%
20% -42.1% 19% -83.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$105 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$1,269
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage69d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $294 $292 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $2,028 −$1,575 -78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 14 $2 +$1 +49%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 14 $1 +$5 +481%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 14 $4 +$6 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 14 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$3 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $297 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $104 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $371 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $45 21h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $45 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $984 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $932 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $21 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 68d
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $22 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.80 · official $291.80 (match) · 61 history records