Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2fe4…92c7
sports · 47 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$12 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses28 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage232d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 19¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-97%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 33¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner G2 Esports 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Gen.G 87¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 27? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 34¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner T1 40¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Yes 50¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Vivo Keyd Stars 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will 风无向 Web3Feng win the Synthetix trading competition? Yes 38¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner G2 Esports 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $30 −$10 -32%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 27? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $17 +$8 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $30 −$28 -94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Dec 13 $3 $0 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 17 $34 −$1 -2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Nov 17 $5 $0 -6%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $20 +$11 +55%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31? Nov 09 $5 $0 -3%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4? Nov 05 $4 −$1 -27%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $20 +$2 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $5 +$3 +56%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $5 +$3 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $53 +$17 +32%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $8 +$1 +13%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 02 $10 $0 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Oct 31 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $15 +$11 +74%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 30 $1 +$2 +163%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $5 +$2 +49%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $8 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $8 $0 +1%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $15 $0 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $5 +$3 +64%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 28 $2 +$4 +203%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $5 +$1 +28%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 26 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 26 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Oct 25 $49 $0 +0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Oct 25 $5 +$6 +122%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $11 +$1 +13%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $5 +$4 +72%
Will 风无向 Web3Feng win the Synthetix trading competition? Oct 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 24 $9 +$1 +6%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 32% +$48
crypto 24% −$45
other 23% −$25
politics 10% +$1
economics 6% +$8
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 15¢ $1 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 28h
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 107d
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 107d
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 44¢ $30 107d
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 27? BUY Yes $1 107d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes $1 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes $2 181d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $12 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 207d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 207d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 71¢ $24 207d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 207d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 207d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 207d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 207d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 210d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 210d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 210d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 210d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 210d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 210d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 211d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 211d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +29.2% +16.9% 50% 50% +95.4%
≤30d 2 +29.2% +16.9% 50% 50% +95.4%
≤90d 2 +29.2% +16.9% 50% 50% +95.4%
all 46 -1.8% -11.1% 61% 39% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 39% -11.7%
10% -19.6% 30% -20.1%
15% -27.4% 26% -27.8%
20% -34.5% 22% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 130 history records