Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2fde…5ae4 politics 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$11
politics 37% −$13
sports 13% +$18
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 86 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 131 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage130d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $256 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $165 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $214 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $203 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 28 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $180 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $175 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $359 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $142 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $164 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $332 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $135 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $140 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $167 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $162 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $545 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $175 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $159 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $195 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $138 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $149 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $182 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $142 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $186 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $165 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $311 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $169 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $190 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $182 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $191 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $332 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $670 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 21 $296 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $138 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $138 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 9h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 12h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 27h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 16d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 17d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 21d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 21d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 21d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 21d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 22d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $162 24d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $162 24d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $163 24d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $163 25d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $169 25d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $169 26d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 26d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 27d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 27d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $176 27d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 27d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 28d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $175 29d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $175 29d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $179 30d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $179 30d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $142 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 402 history records